Saturday, December 15, 2012

Quick update to tight oil models

I have extended both the Bakken and Eagle Ford Shale models out to 2040.  I have assumed no other significant tight oil plays are developed in the US besides these two, this is a somewhat pessimistic assumption, though most other assumptions are relatively optimistic.  These may balance out in the long run.

As the Bakken becomes fully drilled up at about 40,000 wells (around the end of 2024) it is assumed that drilling rigs are moved to Texas from North Dakota to work the Eagle Ford play and that there is a ramp up in the number of wells drilled there per month as a result.

In this current scenario, the tight oil output comes close to matching the EIA 2013 outlook (red diamonds in figure below) from 2018 to 2028, but the output is lower both before and after that period.


Eagle Ford:

US Tight Oil:




  1. I think that we are advancing the yardsticks here.

    I am working on an incremental improvement to the diffusive decline model (related to hyperbolic decline) that introduces the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to diffusion. This is a real effect that slows down the diffusion at long duration via a drag factor.

    (comment also at


    This study, which I don't have my hands on claims that decline rate is the function of permeability, porosity and well depth and is proportional to 1/sqrt(time).

  3. DC, Check out my environmental modeling server:

    I added a section for fossil fuel and AGW models which will get better integrated over time.