Wednesday, April 1, 2015

Oil Shock Model for the World - 4100 Gb

I recently used the Oil Shock Model to create a future oil output scenario using Jean Laherrere’s estimate for World C+C URR of 2700 Gb.  About 500 Gb of extra heavy oil from Canadian Oil Sands and Orinoco Belt oil is included in the C+C URR estimate.

 The United States Geological Survey (USGS) estimates that the World C+C URR is 4100 Gb, including 1000 Gb of extra heavy oil.  The chart below is a new scenario created using Paul Pukite’s (Webhubbletelescope’s) Oil Shock Model with Dispersive Discovery.

I intended this to be an April Fool's joke.  I do not expect that extra heavy oil output will actually reach 28 Mb/d by 2100.  Note however that Jean Laherrere's 2013 estimate for extra heavy oil(XH) has a peak of about 16 Mb/d in 2070, with a URR of 500 Gb for XH oil. 

I believe that the USGS estimate is too optimistic and think 3100 Gb for C+C-XH and 700 Gb for XH oil for a total C+C URR of 3800 Gb is as high as C+C output will go (my optimistic scenario).

My pessimistic scenario is 2500 Gb of C+C-XH and 500 Gb of XH oil for a total C+C URR of 3000 Gb.  My best guess is 2800 Gb of C+C-XH and 600 Gb of XH oil for a total C+C URR of 3400 Gb.