In this post I will explore a number of different scenarios for future North Dakota Bakken crude oil production using an updated interactive spreadsheet which can be downloaded here. More details can be found later in the post (scroll down to fig 12 and read the paragraph above that figure). The new spreadsheet allows the user to change when the decrease in new well EUR begins and the length of time from the start of the decrease in EUR to the maximum monthly rate of decrease. The earlier spreadsheet presented in my previous post had these two parameters fixed at 6 months after June 2013 for the start of the EUR decrease and 18 months for the length of time for the rate of EUR decrease to reach its maximum.
Webster Hubble Telescope (WHT) has a new blog called Context Earth
with a cloud hosted server with some of his oil reserve models. See the Red Queen tight oil model 2.This inspired me to create an interactive
spreadsheet which does something similar.
The spreadsheet is called bakken2.xlsx and can be found here
on Google Drive.
One difference between WHT’s “red queen tight oil model 2” and my
bakken2 model is that the EUR of new wells is about 280 kb in his model and 340
kb for my model at 30 years.
A second difference is that my model allows the new well EUR
to decrease at any annual rate from -0.1 to .99 (10 % increase to a 99 %
decrease) starting in Jan 2014 and rising to the maximum monthly rate by June