Friday, April 26, 2013

Bakken Model Suggests 7 Billion barrels total, enough for 1.3 years of US Crude inputs


Note that all images can be enlarged with a mouse click.
Above is one possible scenario for future output from the Bakken which suggests a total cumulative output of 7 billion barrels (Gb) from 1953 to 2073.  Current US crude oil inputs to refineries is about 15 million barrels per day  (52 week average above 14.9 MMb/d for past 6 months) which is 5.475 Gb per year, the total Bakken output of 7 Gb would supply current refinery inputs for 1.27 years.  When we account for the 0.57 Gb of Bakken which has been produced we are left with about 1.2 years of crude inputs at current levels.
The above estimate is based on  a presentation from the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC) Oil and Gas Division (see slides 25 to 30).  This presentation suggests about 41,000 wells will be drilled in the Bakken at a rate of 1500-3000 wells per year, I chose 2460 wells per year and a total of 42,000 wells drilled by Sept 2028.